Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has asserted that Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run, which began on March 10, 2023, is set to catalyze a market-wide response within the next six to 12 months. Hayes shared his insights during a keynote speech at Korea Blockchain Week, where he detailed the sequence of events that triggered this bullish sentiment.
Banking Crises and Bitcoin’s Surge
Hayes pointed to a series of banking crises in early March 2023 as the initial spark for Bitcoin’s ascent. On March 8, Silvergate Bank faced liquidation, followed by the closure of Signature Bank on March 12 due to regulatory concerns. These events rattled the financial sector, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene by launching the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Under this initiative, banks were offered loans lasting up to a year, provided they posted “qualifying assets” as collateral.
In Hayes’ words, the Federal Reserve essentially “backstopped the entire banking system” by accepting problematic bonds in exchange for freshly printed dollars, acknowledging systemic issues within the financial structure. This development was viewed by Hayes and many others as an admission that the solution to these problems lay in the creation of more money.
Positive Outlook and Market Timeline
Since the inception of the BTFP, Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable price surge, currently standing at approximately 26%. Hayes contends that this surge marked the beginning of the current bull market. He explained, “We basically ditched this whole facade that we care about the value of the dollar and the value of any fiat currency.” This shift in sentiment led traders to consider fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.
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Despite Bitcoin’s ascent, Hayes acknowledged that the broader market has yet to fully respond to these developments. Nevertheless, he remains optimistic, offering a timeline of six to 12 months for a more pronounced market reaction. Importantly, Hayes asserted that Bitcoin’s performance is poised to remain robust, even if central banks pursue interest rate hikes or continue “printing money.” He stated, “On both scenarios, whether the Fed raises or cuts, we are in a good position as the cryptocurrency industry.”